Trump-backed challenger Constantino projected to beat establishment GOP candidate in primary to replace Rep. Stefanik
GOP Primary in New York’s 21st District: Trump-Backed Constantino Outpaces Smullen
Trump backed challenger Constantino projected to beat – In a tightly contested GOP primary, Anthony Constantino, a Trump-endorsed businessman and political newcomer, emerged victorious in Tuesday’s race to succeed Rep. Elise Stefanik in New York’s 21st Congressional District. CBS News projects that Constantino will claim the nomination, defeating Robert Smullen, a state assemblymember who had strong backing from the state Republican Party and local GOP leaders. This result marks a significant shift in the district’s political landscape, as Constantino’s campaign, fueled by his alignment with former President Donald Trump, appears to have resonated more strongly with voters than Smullen’s established credentials.
Campaign Tensions Escalate
The primary became a battleground of heated rhetoric and strategic maneuvering as Constantino and Smullen vied for the nomination. Their rivalry intensified over the course of the campaign, with both candidates threatening legal action against each other for alleged misrepresentations. This friction reached a peak during a May debate, where Smullen refused to shake Constantino’s hand—a gesture that underscored the personal animosity between the two. The district, which spans from the Canadian border to areas near northern Albany, has long been a competitive seat, but the primary’s bitterness highlighted the deepening divisions within the Republican ranks.
Smullen’s campaign, which leaned on institutional support and experience, faced challenges from Constantino’s aggressive grassroots appeal and Trump-centric messaging. The businessman’s ability to mobilize conservative voters, many of whom were disillusioned with traditional Republican figures, proved decisive. However, Smullen’s persistence was evident: despite the setbacks, he retained the backing of the Conservative Party, which had already secured his place on the November ballot. Whether he will remain in the race or withdraw remains uncertain, but his presence complicates the GOP’s strategy for maintaining control of the seat.
Trump’s Influence and Symbolic Gestures
Anthony Constantino’s campaign was heavily influenced by his association with Donald Trump, whose endorsement carried significant weight in the race. The former president’s backing of Constantino was not merely symbolic; it was a strategic move to solidify his base in the district. In a post on Truth Social, Trump highlighted Constantino’s efforts, writing, “Anthony has been such a Great Supporter that he actually put up a somewhat ‘controversial’ sign, against strong opposition, in my honor. The sign is still there!” He added, “HE IS A GREAT GUY WHO WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”
Constantino’s campaign included more than just the iconic sign. Last year, he presented a 7-foot bronze statue of Trump, capturing the president in a moment of raised fists following the Butler assassination attempt in 2024. This artistic tribute, combined with a self-penned song titled “Trump,” which features lyrics like “Everywhere I go, they love Donald Donald Trump,” underscored his devotion to the former leader. The song, released in May, became a talking point during the campaign, blending nostalgia for Trump’s presidency with a fresh wave of populist sentiment.
Stefanik’s Exit and the GOP’s Strategic Shift
Rep. Elise Stefanik, who has represented the district since 2015, initially served as a key figure in Trump’s second term. She was his top choice for ambassador to the United Nations, a role that would have placed her in a high-profile position within the administration. However, Trump later withdrew the nomination, citing the need for Stefanik to stay in Congress due to the party’s narrow majority. This decision left Stefanik with a difficult choice: continue her congressional career or pursue a gubernatorial bid.
Stefanik opted for the latter, launching a campaign for New York governor. Yet, her candidacy faltered when Trump did not endorse her, a move that weakened her position among conservative voters. Her absence from the primary race allowed Constantino to rise as the frontrunner, leveraging Trump’s support to counter Smullen’s institutional advantages. The district’s primary outcome now raises questions about the GOP’s ability to maintain its hold on key constituencies, particularly in light of the growing influence of the Conservative Party and the broader shift toward populist figures.
While Constantino’s victory is a win for his campaign, it also signals a potential realignment within the Republican Party. Smullen’s campaign, which had been bolstered by the Conservative Party, now faces a more uphill battle. Constantino’s success may reflect the broader appeal of Trump’s message, especially among voters wary of traditional politics. His ability to connect with grassroots supporters, despite his relative inexperience, suggests a new dynamic in the party’s electoral strategy.
The primary’s outcome will likely shape the district’s congressional race in November. With Constantino now the projected GOP nominee, his campaign will need to consolidate support and address concerns about his lack of experience. Meanwhile, Smullen’s continued presence in the race could challenge the party’s unity, particularly if he decides to stay in the race. The district’s voters, split between progressive and conservative factions, will play a crucial role in determining whether the GOP’s dominance is secure or under threat.
As the campaign season unfolds, Constantino’s focus on Trump’s legacy and his willingness to adopt bold, symbolic gestures have set him apart. From his “Vote for Trump” sign at his company’s headquarters to the bronze statue in his honor, these actions have not only reinforced his alignment with the former president but also captured the attention of media and supporters. Smullen, on the other hand, remains a formidable opponent, with his ties to the state GOP and local officials giving him a platform to challenge Constantino’s rise.
The race to represent the 21st Congressional District has become a microcosm of the broader Republican Party’s struggles to balance traditional values with populist appeal. Constantino’s win, driven by his association with Trump, highlights how endorsements from the former president can shape election outcomes even in races where he is not a candidate. As the GOP looks ahead to the November election, the primary’s result may serve as a blueprint for future contests, emphasizing the importance of both ideological alignment and grassroots engagement.
With the primary results in, the spotlight now shifts to the general election. Constantino’s path to victory will depend on his ability to translate his primary success into a broader coalition. Meanwhile, Smullen’s decision to stay in the race or withdraw will have lasting implications for the district’s political future. The outcome of this contest could influence not only the next Congress but also the trajectory of the Republican Party in New York and beyond.