Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play

Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play

Lebanon once more finds itself embroiled in conflict, a situation that brings back memories of a meeting I had with President Joseph Aoun at Baabda Palace last August. The modernist building perched atop a hill overlooking Beirut served as a backdrop for our discussion. Aoun, who previously led the military, assumed office following a brutal war between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militia and political party backed by Iran. At that time, Hezbollah had been diminished and was struggling to maintain unity within the nation. Aoun declared his intent to dismantle the group’s arsenal, a goal he believed could unify the country.

A fragile truce was in place when we met, having ended the 2024 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. However, the peace was short-lived, as Israel continued its assaults on targets connected to the militia. In some regions, the fighting never ceased, and even from my residence in eastern Beirut, I could hear the hum of Israeli drones overhead. For Hezbollah’s followers, the group represents the last line of defense against Israeli incursions, which they view as an existential threat. Meanwhile, critics argue that Hezbollah, a Shia Muslim organization, prioritizes its Iranian allies’ interests, pulling Lebanon into prolonged battles it does not need.

“I was born an optimist,” Aoun remarked during our conversation.

Hezbollah’s founding in the 1980s emerged during Israel’s occupation of Lebanon, amid the country’s civil war. The group, initially a resistance force, has since relied on Iranian support for funding, training, and arms. Its mission to destroy Israel remains a core objective. In 1989, the Taif Agreement concluded Lebanon’s civil strife, requiring all militias to disarm and establishing a power-sharing system among its diverse religious communities. Yet, Hezbollah defied this mandate, positioning itself as a movement against the Israeli presence.

Israel withdrew its troops from southern Lebanon in 2000 after an 18-year occupation, but disputes over territory persisted. The UN Resolution 1701, enacted in 2006 to end the war and demand Hezbollah’s disarmament, has never been fully enforced. The group is classified as a terrorist entity by several nations, including the UK and the US. But within Lebanon, Hezbollah holds a unique role, functioning as a political party in parliament, a social organization managing schools and hospitals, and a powerful force in key regions like Dahieh and the eastern Bekaa Valley.

President Aoun, since taking office, has advocated for a “state monopoly on arms,” emphasizing the government’s authority over weaponry. As part of the 2024 ceasefire agreement, Hezbollah pledged to relocate its fighters and arms from southern Lebanon, which it had controlled for years. However, its leader, Naim Qassem, has refused to consider full disarmament across the country. Aoun warns that removing Hezbollah’s weapons without consent could ignite renewed violence. “We can’t let the country descend into another civil war,” he stated during our August meeting.

With Israel’s recent airstrikes killing over 300 Lebanese in a single day, the administration has finally proposed direct negotiations. A meeting between ambassadors, set for Tuesday in Washington, aims to address a ceasefire. Yet, with limited authority over Hezbollah, the Lebanese government faces an uphill battle. The question remains: can a fragile truce hold, or will the nation’s divisions resurface?