As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?

UK Military Shrinkage and Defense Spending Concerns

Lord Robertson’s Warning on Security Funding

Former NATO secretary general Lord Robertson has raised concerns about the UK’s defense strategy, claiming it jeopardizes national security. He criticized the current government for failing to commit sufficient funds, arguing that relying on a growing welfare budget is insufficient for military needs. In a recent statement, Robertson emphasized:

“We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget.”

Shrinking Forces: Army, Navy, and RAF

Since 1990, the UK military has undergone significant reductions. The army’s regular strength dropped from 153,000 troops to 73,790, despite the 2025 Strategic Defence Review (SDR) setting a target of not falling below 73,000. Meanwhile, the Royal Navy’s fleet has shrunk from 48 major combat ships in 1990—comprising 13 destroyers and 35 frigates—to just 11 frigates and 6 destroyers. The RAF, which once operated over 300 combat jets, now relies on 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 37 F-35 Lightning II aircraft, which, though advanced, are fewer in number.

Uncrewed aircraft systems, such as drones, have emerged as a new asset in the UK’s air force, a capability absent in 1990. These systems have proven critical in modern conflicts, including Ukraine, where they reportedly cause more casualties than traditional artillery. Analysts stress the need for greater investment in such technology to maintain strategic advantage.

Procurement Challenges and Project Delays

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) oversees 47 of the 213 Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) initiatives in the 2024-25 fiscal year. However, performance reviews reveal troubling trends. In December, the National Audit Office (NAO) highlighted that 12 of these projects were rated ‘Red,’ indicating their completion seems unlikely. The report also noted persistent delays, with contracts for projects exceeding £20 million taking an average of six and a half years to finalize.

To address these issues, the 2025 SDR proposed a “segmented approach” to streamline procurement and ensure contracts are awarded within two years. Yet, the current pace of delivery suggests challenges remain in meeting these goals.

Spending Trends and NATO Targets

Despite the government’s assertion of “the largest sustained increase in defense spending since the Cold War,” analysts argue this claim is modest given the long-term decline in defense budgets. The MoD aims to allocate 2.5% of GDP to NATO-qualified defense spending by April 2027, with a goal of reaching 3% in the next Parliament. By 2035, the UK plans to meet a NATO target of 5% GDP for “national security,” divided into 3.5% for “core defense” and 1.5% for infrastructure protection and civil preparedness.

Currently, the UK’s 2025 defense spending of 2.3% GDP places it above the midpoint among NATO members. However, only three countries—Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia—exceeded 3.5% of GDP in defense spending that year, with Estonia and Norway narrowly trailing behind.

Welfare vs. Defense: A Growing Disparity

Robertson’s critique extends to the relative funding of welfare programs versus defense. While defense spending was lower than welfare in the mid-1980s, it has since become a smaller share of GDP. By the end of the decade, welfare spending is expected to rise to around 4.3% of GDP, partly due to increased claims for benefits like Personal Independence Payments (PIP). Although mental health conditions may contribute to this trend, the exact causes remain unclear to independent researchers.