Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, but 3 officials vote for hike
Bizeconanalysis.com – The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that it is leaving its benchmark interest rate unchanged, a sign policymakers expect inflation to ebb despite higher energy costs due to the war in Iran.This marks the fifth consecutive time the central bank has kept interest rates in the target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The last time Fed officials voted to change interest rates was in December 2025, when it reduced its key rate by 0.25 percentage points.Yet while the Fed voted to stand pat, three of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s 12 voting members dissented from the decision. Such disagreement on the rate-setting panel is unusual, suggesting that some Fed officials are inclined to act now to extinguish inflation, according to Wall Street analysts.
"The Fed appears to be running out of patience with above-target inflation, despite recent data coming in cold," Kay Haigh, global head and CIO of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in an email following the decision. "The committee's growing hawkish sentiment, shown by the three dissents against today's hold, has also likely been exacerbated by the recent flare-up in hostilities in the Middle East."The dissenting members were Beth Hammack, CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; Neel Kashkari, CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; and Lorie K. Logan, CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas."Family fight""I asked for a good family fight, and I got one," Warsh said during a press conference after the Fed's announcement.
He described an animated discussion among officials, noting that the main point of division was over the best way to lower prices. "There was nothing inertial about that discussion," he said.In its policy statement announcing the rate decision, the Fed said economic growth is expanding at a solid clip despite uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East, while noting that inflation remains sticky."Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy," the FOMC said in its policy statement. The move to hold the federal funds rate — what banks charge each other for overnight loans — was widely expected by economists and investors after June inflation data showed consumer prices easing."When you have a supply shock like the Iran War, the textbook says don't raise rates unless inflation expectations are rising because the inflation will not become entrenched and it'll fade once the shock is over," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CBS News prior to the Fed's latest rate decision.
"I think that argument still wins the day."Warsh keeps investors guessingDuring the press conference, Warsh reiterated the FOMC's commitment to stabilizing prices, saying that Fed officials "will not hesitate to act" to curb inflation. At the same time, he did not offer any hints on the future direction of monetary policy."If inflation continues to be elevated through the forecast period, interest rates could well be part of that solution," he told reporters. "But I wouldn't say it's in isolation."Warsh has previously expressed a preference for more limited Fed communications, a departure from recent Fed chairs, raising concerns among some investors that less central bank guidance could drive market volatility.
"I understand the desire for rolling forecasts and commentary from this committee, but for our part, we need to observe market reaction to developments, direct and unfiltered," Warsh said.U.S. stock markets briefly rose after the Fed's announcement, but then quickly slumped and ended down sharply lower on the day. The S&P 500 fell 113 points, or 1.5%, to close at 7,316, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1,153, or 2.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite sank 1.7%.Are future rate hikes likely?The Fed could yet act to raise borrowing costs later this year if inflation, which has remained well above the central bank's 2% annual target, resumes climbing.Energy prices drifted higher this month, driven by renewed tensions in the Middle East.
Last week, the national average for a gallon of gas topped $4, and global oil temporarily breached $100 a barrel. "The probability of a rate hike is rising, in our view, especially if the conflict persists and oil prices continue to trend higher," Edward Jones senior analyst Brian Therien said in an email prior to the Fed meeting. "That said, the inflation outlook could become more balanced if the U.S.-Iran pause leads to a longer ceasefire and oil prices remain lower."The artificial intelligence boom is also driving up costs for memory chips, consumer electronics and electricity, according to EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco.
"The key question is what happens in the Middle East," he told CBS News. "That's going to be the key driver of headline inflation."Daco thinks the Fed would likely hike rates at its September meeting if inflation were to reaccelerate.Futures traders put the odds of a quarter percentage point hike at the Fed's next meeting in September at roughly 53%.President Trump has urged the Fed to cut rates and repeatedly pressured former Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to lower borrowing costs to spur economic growth. Mr.
Trump's latest call to lower rates came on Tuesday, when he told reporters aboard Air Force One, "We should have the lowest interest rate in the world."
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