Ceasefire or no ceasefire, the Middle East’s reshuffling is not yet done

Ceasefire or no ceasefire, the Middle East’s reshuffling is not yet done

The ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan face significant hurdles, with the United States and Iran each driven by distinct motivations. For the Americans, the talks offer a chance to conclude the conflict and shift focus to domestic priorities. With midterm elections approaching in November and a state visit from King Charles scheduled for late April, Trump’s administration seeks to end the war and stabilize oil prices. Yet, the war’s momentum remains strong, as Israel, America’s key ally, intensifies its strikes on Lebanon.

Iran, too, has its own stakes in the ceasefire. Despite suffering from economic paralysis and military setbacks, the regime maintains its capacity to deploy missiles and drones. Its social media presence, filled with AI-generated videos mocking Donald Trump, underscores its defiance. However, the loss of key figures—such as Ayatollah Ali Khamanei and his wife—has left uncertainty. Speculation suggests his son Mojtaba, now acting as successor, may have been injured in the attacks, though his whereabouts remain unclear.

“A capital V military victory,” asserted US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, yet the reality is more complex. The strikes that ignited the war on 28 February have not led to regime collapse, as Iran’s resilience has surprised even its adversaries. The US and Israel have dealt heavy blows to Iran’s infrastructure, but the country remains intact, capable of continuing hostilities.

The talks in Islamabad are now central to resolving the immediate crisis, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow passage, crucial for global oil trade, has been blocked by Iran, giving it leverage over international markets. Reopening the waterway is now a focal point, as its control determines economic stability and regional power dynamics.

While both sides present starkly different agendas—Trump’s 15-point strategy and Iran’s 10-point list of demands—the path to a lasting truce requires compromise. The absence of trust between the nations complicates efforts, but even a verbal agreement could signal progress. The challenge lies in addressing intractable issues, which have been exacerbated by the war’s escalation.

For millions of civilians caught in the crossfire, the negotiations represent a glimmer of hope. However, the initial optimism was misplaced. The US had anticipated a swift resolution, mirroring the successful capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife in January. Yet, the war has evolved, reshaping Middle Eastern geopolitics and deepening divisions. As the longer-term impacts of the conflict unfold, the region’s power structures will continue to shift, regardless of the ceasefire’s outcome.