Beijing promised to ‘fight back’ over Taiwan leader’s US visit. But this time it has more to lose

Beijing Promised to ‘Fight Back’ Over Taiwan Leader’s US Visit. But This Time It Has More to Lose

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen’s upcoming meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California has reignited worries of a potential escalation in tensions with China, mirroring the intense pressure Beijing exerted during last year’s visit by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. That event saw China conduct massive military exercises, launching multiple missiles into the surrounding waters of the island and deploying warplanes across the Taiwan Strait’s critical median line. The nation also severed diplomatic and economic ties with the United States over a range of issues, from military cooperation to climate initiatives, as a show of defiance against perceived encroachment on its sovereignty.

China’s current threats to “resolutely fight back” if the Tsai-McCarthy meeting proceeds have intensified concerns about the ramifications of the encounter. Officials in Beijing have also warned that allowing Tsai to stop in the US during her Central American travels could lead to a significant geopolitical clash. Despite these warnings, Tsai remains steadfast, vowing as she departed on her 10-day journey not to let external pressures deter Taiwan from strengthening its global connections with like-minded democracies.

“This puts the burden on China not to overreact, because any overreaction is only going to push China further away from the world,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.

Analysts suggest Beijing might adopt a more measured approach this time, considering the broader implications for its international standing and the timing of the meeting. The event occurs during a volatile phase in US-China relations, marked by flare-ups over issues such as a downed Chinese surveillance balloon and disputes in semiconductor supply chains. A harsh response could risk damaging the fragile balance between the two nations, especially after last August’s military actions left Taiwan grappling with increased incursions over the strait.

Taiwan’s official Central News Agency confirmed the meeting, citing Tsai’s presidential office. This encounter between the island’s leader and the head of the Republican-majority House of Representatives, who holds the second-highest position in the US government, symbolizes a pivotal moment for the ongoing unofficial alliance between the two entities. For Tsai, entering her final year in office, the meeting represents a culmination of her efforts to elevate Taiwan’s global profile and deepen ties with the United States.

“She has this image as the Taiwanese president who has taken US-Taiwan relations to new heights, and who … has been able to give Taiwan almost unprecedented international visibility,” noted Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University’s Taiwan Studies Program.

China’s Communist Party continues to claim Taiwan as its own, despite never having controlled the territory. Over the past decade, under President Xi Jinping’s leadership, the nation has significantly expanded its military capabilities, maintaining a posture of economic, diplomatic, and military dominance over the island. The pressure on Taiwan has only grown, with the island remaining less than 110 miles from mainland China’s coast. Yet, Tsai’s actions have managed to bolster Taiwan’s international presence, even as Beijing remains determined to assert its claim.