How long can Iran continue the war?

How long can Iran continue the war?

Amid the escalating conflict with the United States and Israel, Iran remains unilaterally engaged. The country’s leadership has focused on leveraging its missile and drone capabilities, showing no signs of yielding. Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, emphasized this during the war’s third day, stating that the regime is prepared for a prolonged struggle. “We will defend ourselves, whatever the cost,” he declared, aligning with broader statements from Islamic Republic officials since the conflict began.

Since February 28, the US and Israel have launched a synchronized, large-scale military campaign against Iran. Their targets include key leaders, as well as military and government installations. Despite the loss of several high-ranking Iranian figures, the theocratic government has held firm. In response, Tehran has targeted Israel and neighboring Persian Gulf nations, including US bases, with missile and drone strikes. The United Arab Emirates reported being hit by hundreds of Iranian projectiles in recent days.

Admiral Brad Cooper, commanding US Central Command, noted that by March 4, Iran had launched over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones. He criticized the attacks for targeting civilians indiscriminately. Meanwhile, a unnamed weapons analyst told DW that the exact number of Iran’s missile stockpile remains uncertain. Initially, Israel estimated Iran had around 2,500 ballistic missiles, but this count has likely dropped due to both the country’s own launches and US-Israeli strikes that damaged storage sites.

Satellite imagery circulating online suggests attacks on missile bases in Kermanshah, Karaj, Khorramabad, and northern Tabriz. The images show collapsed tunnels linked to underground facilities destroyed in recent strikes. The expert also highlighted the increased effectiveness of mobile missile launchers, made possible by recent technological improvements. However, uncertainty persists about how many of these systems have been neutralized.

Iran’s drone production capacity is another factor in its endurance. Leaked Russian documents indicate Tehran can manufacture approximately 5,000 drones monthly. These are launched from rudimentary scaffolds assembled in hours, with each unit costing several thousand dollars. In contrast, a US-made Patriot interceptor missile can cost up to $3 million. The New York Times, analyzing satellite data and verified footage, reported that Iran’s short-range missiles and drones struck seven US military bases in the Middle East, aiming to disrupt communication and radar systems.

“Iran is strategically extending the conflict to gain time,” said Fawaz Gerges, a professor at the London School of Economics. He argued that the regime’s leadership has had ample opportunity to plan and coordinate its efforts. “They are building resilience, not just for survival but to continue fighting,” Gerges added, noting the core objective of the Islamic government is to endure and adapt. The war’s trajectory now hinges on whether Iran can sustain its operations while absorbing the pressure from its adversaries.