Can the US sustain its war in Iran?
Can the US sustain its war in Iran?
President Trump asserted that the United States possesses “virtually unlimited” weaponry supplies, while his defense secretary claimed Iran has “no hope” of outlasting American forces. Yet, with dwindling stocks of defensive missiles, the question remains: how confident should Washington be in its long-term capacity? The conflict escalated on February 28 when the US initiated “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran, marking a pivotal moment in the ongoing military engagement.
Scale of the Strikes
Following the operation’s launch, the US executed thousands of attacks across Iran, employing over 20 weapon systems across air, land, and sea platforms. In the initial phase, Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was reportedly eliminated in a joint US-Israeli strike. Despite Trump’s claim that the campaign could last four to five weeks, he emphasized the nation’s ability to extend the conflict indefinitely.
“We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” stated Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a visit to US Central Command. “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need.”
“We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense,” added General Dan Caine, the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair.
However, Trump hinted at potential challenges in a social media post, noting that while medium-grade munitions are abundant, the highest-end stockpiles are “not where we want to be.” This distinction has drawn attention from experts like Kelly Grieco of the Stimson Center, who highlighted concerns about the limited availability of advanced long-range missiles and interceptors.
Cost Efficiency Concerns
The war’s financial strain becomes evident when comparing costs. A single Shahed 136 drone, produced for between $20,000 and $50,000, can be neutralized by a fighter jet equipped with AIM-9 missiles, which cost $450,000 each. Adding the operational expense of $40,000 per hour, Grieco noted that “the cost of operating the fighter for an hour is equivalent to the cost of a Shahed.” She criticized this as an inefficient use of resources, suggesting the US could adopt cheaper alternatives similar to those used in Ukraine.
“The United States has tested [that technology], it just hasn’t purchased it in sufficient numbers,” said Grieco.
Iran’s response has been relentless, launching thousands of drones and hundreds of missiles at US and allied targets. This has raised alarms about the sustainability of the current defense strategy. Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warned that “the inventory has been significantly depleted,” with estimates suggesting 200-300 Patriot missiles have already been used.
Production Expansion
Lockheed Martin’s agreement to scale up Patriot PAC-3 production from 600 to 2,000 per year was publicly announced after Trump met with defense contractors on March 6. The White House highlighted that the meeting had been planned for weeks, but Grieco questioned the urgency, calling it “a non-announcement” since most deals had already been finalized.
Cancian noted that high-grade weapons like the Patriot take time to manufacture, with only 620 interceptors delivered in 2025. He estimated that producing additional units could take at least two years. Meanwhile, shorter-range munitions such as bombs and Hellfire missiles appear more plentiful, offering a more sustainable option for prolonged operations.
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