Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
Can the US Military Sustain a Long War in Iran?
President Donald Trump asserted that the United States possesses an “unlimited” arsenal of weapons, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized that Iran has “no hope” of enduring a prolonged conflict. However, concerns have emerged over the availability of high-grade munitions, particularly defensive systems. With limited stockpiles of advanced missiles, how confident should Washington be in its ability to maintain the campaign?
Operation Epic Fury and the Initial Strikes
Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, marking the start of a massive aerial and ground assault on Iran. Within the first week, the US and its allies executed thousands of attacks, utilizing over 20 weapon systems across air, land, and sea. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was reportedly among the casualties in the initial wave of strikes led by the US and Israel.
Despite Trump’s claim that the war might last “four to five weeks,” he later hinted at the possibility of a longer conflict. “We have the capability to go far beyond that,” he stated, though he noted that “munitions stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better.” However, the highest-grade weapons—long-range missiles and interceptors—remain a point of worry.
“There are real limitations on stockpiles there,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center. “The United States has tested [that technology], it just hasn’t purchased it in sufficient numbers.”
The Cost of Sustaining the Conflict
The economic toll of the war is becoming evident. Iran’s Shahed-136 drones, costing $20,000 to $50,000 each, have been deployed in large numbers against US and regional targets. In contrast, operating a fighter jet equipped with AIM-9 missiles requires $450,000 per launch plus $40,000 hourly for flight operations. “The cost of operating the fighter for an hour is equivalent to the cost of a Shahed,” noted Grieco. “It’s not efficient. It’s not a favorable cost exchange.”
Iran has also launched hundreds of ballistic missiles, targeting US facilities in the region. The more expensive Patriot defense missiles, priced around $3 million each, are critical for intercepting these threats. Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that Patriot stocks are being depleted rapidly. “At the beginning, I think there were about 1,000 Patriots,” he said. “We’ve already used 200-300 of them.”
High-grade interceptors like the PAC-3, essential for countering Iran’s missile arsenal, have seen slower production. Lockheed Martin delivered just 620 PAC-3 missiles in 2025, with a lead time of at least two years for additional purchases. Cancian highlighted this bottleneck, stating, “If you went to the company today and said I want to buy one more Patriot, it would take at least two years for that Patriot to show up.”
For shorter-range weapons such as bombs and Hellfire missiles, the US appears more resilient. Cancian acknowledged that “militarily, we could sustain it for a very long time” due to ample ground munitions. Yet, the challenge lies in balancing the use of precision-guided systems with the need to replenish high-grade stockpiles.
On March 6, Trump met with defense contractors, announcing plans to quadruple production of top-tier weaponry. The White House framed the meeting as a long-planned effort, but Grieco questioned its urgency. “I found that to be like a non-announcement,” she remarked, pointing out that many of these agreements had already been disclosed.
