Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large

Bowen: Trump’s Call for an Iran Uprising Echoes 1991’s Lessons

Three decades after the first Gulf War, the echoes of a pivotal moment remain. In 1991, President George H.W. Bush addressed a crowd at a Massachusetts factory producing Patriot missiles, a weapon later hailed as a game-changer in the conflict. His words, though brief, carried weight that would reverberate through history. The speech, delivered during the ongoing Desert Storm campaign, hinted at a potential shift in power dynamics, one that might have left Saddam Hussein vulnerable.

At the time, the combined forces of the US, UK, and their allies were intensifying air strikes against Iraqi troops and cities. Tens of thousands of troops were already positioned along the borders of Kuwait and Iraq, awaiting the ground war’s launch. I was in Baghdad, covering the conflict, when the US bombed a shelter in Amiriyah, killing over 400 civilians. The Americans and British claimed it was a command center, but the sight of children, women, and elderly among the dead told a different story. The shelter still smoldered, and the bodies spoke volumes about the cost of war.

Years later, as I watched Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu urging Iranians to rise against their regime, I found myself reflecting on Bush’s 1991 remarks. The current call for an uprising, framed as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, seemed familiar. Yet, unlike the first Gulf War, which had UN Security Council backing, today’s strategy lacks such legal foundation. Bush’s speech, however, planted seeds that would bear fruit.

“There’s another way for the bloodshed to stop…and that is for the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside,”

These words, delivered with optimism, inspired both hope and trepidation. The workers cheered, believing they had witnessed a turning point. Meanwhile, the president turned his focus back to rallying public support for the war. Some Iraqis, though, took the message seriously. After the Iraqi army was driven from Kuwait, a ceasefire allowed Saddam to retain control. Soon, revolts erupted in the north and south, with Kurds and Shias challenging his rule.

The coalition stood by as the regime retaliated. Helicopters, spared during the initial conflict, were used to crush the uprisings, resulting in thousands of deaths. By the time I was in the Kurdish region, the toll was evident. Fathers carried the bodies of their children, who had perished from cold or illness on mountain slopes. The Americans, British, and others eventually intervened, launching a rescue mission for the Kurds. The Shias, however, faced a harsher fate, their rebellion met with brutal force.

The aftermath of the first Gulf War set the stage for future conflicts. A no-fly zone, American bases, and the rise of Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda were all consequences of the war’s aftermath. In 2003, George W. Bush’s invasion toppled Saddam, a move Iran welcomed as it removed a regional rival. Now, the third Gulf War aims to dismantle the Islamic Republic’s influence, with Israel targeting its nuclear ambitions. Trump’s decision to partner with Israel in this effort marks a new chapter, yet the pattern of promises and consequences remains unchanged.