How depleted weapons stockpiles could affect the Iran conflict

How Depleted Weapon Stockpiles Could Impact the Iran Conflict

Donald Trump, the US president, asserts that his nation possesses a nearly endless reserve of critical military assets. Meanwhile, Iran’s defense ministry insists its country can withstand prolonged hostilities longer than the US anticipated. While ammunition reserves alone won’t determine the war’s outcome—Ukraine has faced overwhelming Russian firepower despite being outnumbered—these supplies play a pivotal role in shaping the conflict’s trajectory.

The fighting has escalated rapidly from the outset. Both parties are consuming weapons at a rate faster than they can replenish. According to the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), US and Israeli forces have executed over 2,000 strikes, each involving multiple munitions. Iran, meanwhile, has launched 571 missiles and 1,391 drones since the conflict began. Many of these have been intercepted, but the sheer volume underscores the intensity of operations.

As the war continues, sustaining this level of combat will grow increasingly challenging. Western officials note a decline in Iran’s missile strikes, from hundreds on the first day to dozens now. Before the war, estimates suggested Iran held more than 2,000 short-range ballistic missiles. However, precise figures remain classified to obscure military capabilities from opponents.

Strategic Shift in Weapon Use

General Dan Caine, America’s top commander, reported a 86% drop in Iran’s ballistic missile launches since the conflict began. US Central Command (Centcom) also noted a 23% reduction in the past 24 hours. Despite this, Iran’s drone attacks have fallen by 73%, indicating potential strain on its arsenal. Caine suggested this decline might signal a strategic move to conserve stockpiles, though maintaining production remains tough.

“After the initial attack from a distance, the US can now use less expensive missiles and bombs,” said Mark Cancian, a former US Marine colonel with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He added that the US could maintain this level of engagement “almost indefinitely”.

Iran’s ability to sustain operations is waning. The country had previously mass-produced tens of thousands of Shahed-style one-way attack drones, which it shared with Russia. These drones have been effective in Ukraine, and the US has adopted similar technology. Yet, the dramatic reduction in Iran’s drone launches suggests challenges in both production and deployment.

With US and Israeli jets now dominating the skies, Iran’s air defenses are largely neutralized. Its air force is no longer a credible threat. Centcom forecasts the next phase will target Iran’s missile and drone launchers, its remaining stockpiles, and production facilities. This could weaken its combat readiness, though complete destruction of supplies may prove difficult.

Iran’s vast territory, comparable to France in size, allows weapons to be concealed from aerial strikes. Historical examples, such as Israel’s struggle to eliminate Hamas in Gaza after three years of bombing or Yemen’s Houthi rebels surviving a year-long campaign, highlight the limits of airpower. Even with its global dominance, the US relies heavily on precision-guided weapons, which are costly and produced in limited quantities.

Trump is expected to convene a meeting with defense contractors later this week to accelerate production. This reflects concerns about resource strain. While the US now enjoys greater flexibility to strike at close range, the shift from expensive stand-off weapons—like Tomahawk cruise missiles—to more affordable stand-in options, such as JDAM bombs, has already begun. Mark Cancian emphasized that the availability of tens of thousands of JDAM bombs ensures continued firepower, but the scarcity of advanced air defense systems could limit effectiveness.